Starting Hands

When a dealer deals you your 2 pocket cards you are going to receive 1 of 169 various combinations of starting hand. What? I hear you cry…all those cards and only 169 combinations…how can this be?

If we firstly ask ourselves what are the chances of getting Ac Ad then we’ll begin to explain how all the combinations occur.

By being very specific about our requirements (Ac Ad) then the chances of being dealt the Ac as our FIRST pocket card is obviously 1/52 given that there are 52 cards in the pack and we want the Ac.

Let’s assume that happens. What are the chances of the NEXT card we receive being the Ad (the other wanted card in our pocket card line up).

Given that we’ve removed one card from the pack already (the Ac) then there are 51 cards left in the deck. Our chances of the next card being the Ad is therefore 1/51.

Multiplying these two numbers together we get 1/2652 chance of getting the Ac followed by the Ad. Of course we could say that we don’t really care WHAT order they come in we just want the Ac and the Ad in our hand. Well okay then that’ll give us odds of 1/1326 as we’ve now created a scenario where our maths look like 2/52 (1/26) – either the Ad OR the Ac comes out first * 1/51 – we still need either the Ad or the Ac to be the next card.

Well okay then…what’s so special about the Ad and the Ac anyway? What’s wrong with just getting Aces, any suit, we don’t care!

To know the probability of getting Aces you need to be aware of how many combinations of Aces there are in a pack of cards.

Let’s see…we can get:

That’s SIX combinations of ACES in our 52 pack of playing cards. Divide 6 by the number of the ‘anyway’ combination number of 1326 and you get 221. The chances of you  therefore getting Aces, as your starting hand in Texas Hold’Em, is therefore 220/1.

Well…hold on a minute we’re down to 220/1 but where do we get the 169 combinations from?

If we assume that at the start of the hand, before any flop, that ALL combinations are equally likely then, with all things being equal, we’re just as likely to get an Ace, as our first pocket card, as we are a 2. There are 13 values of card we can receive (2 thru Ace). Given that the same probability applies for the 2nd card then we can only receive a mathematical equation of 1/13 * 1/13 = 169.

Here are some other interesting numbers to look at in respect of being dealt:

Pocket aces 220/1 (0.45%)
Any pocket pair 16/1 (5.9%)

AK suited 331/1 (0.3%)
AK off suit 110/1 (0.9%)
AK suited or otherwise 82/1 (1.2%)

Any two suited cards 3.3/1 (24%)
Max stretch suited connectors, e.g. JT suited 46/1 (2.1%)
Max stretch connectors, e.g. JT suited or otherwise 11/1 (8.5%)

Either pocket aces or pocket kings 110/1 (0.9%)
Either pocket aces, pocket kings or AK 46/1 (2.1%)
Either pocket aces, pocket kings, pocket queens, AK, AQ or KQ 19/1 (5%)
Any pocket pair or two cards ten or higher 4.5/1 (18%)
Any pocket pair of sevens or higher or two cards ten or higher 5.4/1 (16%)

Of course in the eyes of the game of Texas Hold’Em some pocket card ‘combinations’ are more readily playable than others and we’re now going to look at some of the best, and some of the worst, starting hands you can get.

Starting Hands – the Great & the Not So Great

A great deal of analysis has been carried out on WHICH starting hands perform better than others. To this end we’re going to concentrate on the 51 most playable, and profitable, hands in Texas Hold’Em. Any other starting hand combination not mentioned in our list of 51 is simply NOT PROFITABLE in the long term.

Of course hands like 7 2 off suit (the worst starting hand you can have) can win a pot if the flop comes down 7 7 7 but in reality this does not happen often enough for this to be a profitable holding.

So let’s begin with the top 5 hands you can hold (GROUP 1) and go from there.

1.	Undoubtedly the strongest 2 card combination out there. You can play these cards from any position with aggression before the flop.
2.	Second in our list is KK. Another hand you can play aggressively from any position.
3.	Whilst QQ does not have the almighty strength of it’s 2 predecessors, it is still a significantly strong hand and is well worth a raise pre-flop.
4.	JJ, although being highly playable, suffers greatly from the possibility of a Q, K or A appearing on the flop. Be cautious with this hand!
5.	Ace King Suited (written as AKs) as opposed to Ace King off suit (written as AKo) can be a powerful raising hand.
GROUP 2 HOLDINGS (5)
1.	In sixth position we have a pair of tens – written TT. Venerable after the flop though so watch out!
2.	Another good holding AQs can be used for flushes, straight and top pair holdings. Powerful stuff indeed.
3.	AJs is also ranked as a GROUP 2 holding.
4.	KQ is the first of the hands that does not contain an Ace or a pair. The increase in possible straights just edges it above hand #5 in our list of group 2 holdings.
5.	AKo is our first unsuited hand. Although highly playable it doesn’t offer any flush possibilities. Good for raising with though pre-flop.
GROUP 3 HOLDINGS (6)
1.	99 will offer a good chance to beat a non-pair in a heads up situation but could fall short in a multi-way pot.
2.	JT becomes the first of our hands that has full straight potential. 3 cards either side could create a straight (e.g.. Q,K,A or 7,8,9)
3.	QJs has obvious strengths in its flush and straight potential but can be caught out by opponents holding an Ace or King.
4.	KJs has slightly better straight possibilities than AT but the King is simply not as powerful as the Ace.
5.	AT continues the strength of the suited hands.
6.	AQo has strength mainly in its high pair potential, although a straight is caught occasionally.
GROUP 4 HOLDINGS (10)
The following 10 hands are all grouped together as GROUP 4 hands.
GROUP 5 HOLDINGS (16)
The following 16 hands are all grouped together as GROUP 5 hands.

GROUP 6 HOLDINGS (9)
The following 9 hands are all grouped together as GROUP 6 hands.

WORST 6 HOLDINGS IN HOLD’EM
The following 6 hands should be avoided at all costs!

The 51 hand holdings as listed above (apart from the last 6) are our basis on which to play the game. Outside of these holdings then you’re gambling, pure and simple. Of course it’s not to say that the hands presented above are all going to win for you every time you play them but they do give you an edge and in a game where you’ll usually need all the edges you can get in order to be a winner then you’ll soon see the benefits of playing the hands we’ve shown you.

Next week’s article is called "Starting Hands – Based On Position"